US Election Preview
New poll at the Dickey household...2 out of 3 people asked say they are sick of polls...the third wants to be a fire truck. -S. Dickey, my former boss
We have one day to go before the 2012 election in what many have called "the biggest election of our lifetime." The TV commercials are blaring at me about how Mitt Romney will give Planned Parenthood the axe and mandate magic underpants under RomneyCare, while Obama is raise our national debt to
$20,000,000,000,000
and change the national anthem to "Deeez Nuuuts
if he's re-elected. What are we to believe?
And what the fuck is going on with the polls? When Obama held a five to six point lead nationally before the first debate, Republicans claimed there was clearly a bias in the industry. Contrary to recent studies that showed that no consistent bias existed for Republicans or for Democrats in the past, Republicans repeated their mantra that Science is bullshit and the polls were wrong. A few weeks later, Mitt Romney came storming back in the polls after Barry decided to skip the first debate. I guess it goes without saying that Fox News and other Conservative freakshows started to advertise Mitt's big lead daily. Folks, you can't have it both ways.
With one day to go before the election, national polls are a bit all over the place suggesting to some that this race is a tossup. Is it really? A tossup would mean that it's literally a 50/50 chance that Obama gets re-elected. Since the polls are not in agreement about the state of the race, it would be helpful if there was a method to aggregate the polls and make some meaningful prediction. RealClearPolitics has been doing this for a while, but they give equal weight to all recent polls. Surely, there is a better way to weigh polls based on the pollsters' previous predictions. Nate Silver of 538 does this and implements a probabilistic approach to the problem. According to Silver, Obama has over an 85% chance of victory with an expected electoral college count of over 300. Other nerds have created similar algorithms, such as Sam Wang of Princeton. Wang predicts Obama has a 99% chance of victory. If the nerds say Obama has this baby in the bag, what's the point of watching?
For one, election night provides an excellent reason to get loaded on a Tuesday night. If you attempt to watch six straight hours of CNN with a straight head, your brain is likely to explode (medically, this is called Exploding Head Syndrome). If you dare to watch six straight hours of Fox Noise coverage, well, that's not possible. It's against the Geneva Conventions on Torture. So grab yourself a twelver of Bud, a couple of bombers of quality craft beer, or a mason jar of moonshine and get ready for non-stop coverage of the tightest counties, charts of the electorate, and plenty of visits to ballot counting rooms. Drinking games are always a hit on election night, as long as you are not some nerd holed in up your basement with your daddy. Take a drink anytime one of the following keywords is mentioned (courtesy of http://www.debatedrinking.com/):
-Ground Game
-Firewall
-Sandy
-Photo ID
-Recount
-Youth Vote
-Ass-to-Mouth
-Enthusiasm
-The Name of a Third Party Candidate (Gary Johnson, Jill Stein, Virgil Goode, Rocky Anderson)
-Ohio
-Reagan
Another fun thing to do on election night is to flip to the partisan cable network whose candidate is losing. Should Romney pull out a miracle in Pennsylvania, switch over to Rachel Maddow and the other liberal freeloaders on MSNBC to see them cry about turnout due to Hurricane Sandy. If Barry gives Mitt a Dirty Sanchez in Ohio, switch over to Fox News and hear Megyn Kelly lament about the Black Panthers intimidating voters in mainstream American and the need for more voter ID laws in the US.
As for me, I'll be drinking a variety of craft beers from around America while blogging exclusively here on Festung Europa. Be sure to stay tuned!
Without further ado, let's take a look at electoral college predictions (feel free to submit your picks before 5pm MST Tuesday):
The Pros:
Drew Linzer: Obama 332 / Romney 206
Josh Putnam: Obama 332 / Romney 206
Sam Wang: Obama 319 / Romney 219
Nate Silver: Obama 303 / Romney 235
Scott Elliott: Obama 290 / Romney 248
Real Clear Politics: Obama 290 / Romney 248
DeSart and Holbrook: Obama 281 / Romney 257
Karl Rove: Romney 279 / Obama 259
Michael Barone: Romney 315 / Obama 223
Bickers/Berry: Romney 320 / Obama 218
The Nielsens:
Aaron: Obama 303 / Romney 235
Justin: Obama 290 / Romney 248
Daryl: Romney 285 / Obama 253
The Others:
Chris Meyer: Obama 286 / Romney 252
Brady K: Obama 332 / Romney 206
Brad Nielsen: Romney 538 / Obama 0
And here's an interesting Washington Post link with predictions of other "experts," including that of Jim Cramer, who seems a little mathematically challenged when he posits that Obama will receive 440 electoral votes!
Not surprisingly, the partisans are choosing their candidate of choice. Originally, I had Obama winning with 290 electoral votes winning the swing states of Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Colorado. Just prior to publication of this article, I have updated my prediction to include Virginia in the Obama column. I am predicting a slight popular vote edge for Obama on election night. The presidential race isn't the only one that I'll be following closely on election night. Here's the top races that I'll be keeping tabs on around the country.
Double A's prediction: Obama 303 (50.1% popular), Romney 235 (48.7% popular)
Missouri Senate: Incumbent Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) vs. Todd Akin (R)
"Claire Bear" was as good as gone from this seat until the Tea Baggers nominated bat shit crazy psycho Todd Akin. Akin's first talk about "legitimate rape" should have sunk his candidacy, but Republicans have quietly been pouring money back into the state. Fortunately, Akin is just too bat shit, even for bat shit crazy Missouri.
Double A's prediction: McCaskill by 4%
Virginia Senate: Tim Kaine (D) vs. George Allen (R)
Allen was an up and comer in the Republican party with many even suggesting him for president just a few years back. That was until some blogger caught Allen calling someone a "Macaca" during his re-election campaign for Senate back in 2006. Jim Webb eventually won the seat, but Allen is back for sloppy seconds after Webb announced he was retiring. Tim Kaine is a favorite in the Democratic party, the former chairman of the DNC, and a finalist for Obama's VP slot back in 2008. I think Obama's turnout in Virginia will help Kaine narrowly win this seat.
Double A's prediction: Kaine by 3%
Nebraska Senate: Bob Kerrey (D) vs. Deb Fischer (R)
Democrats somehow convinced former governor and former senator of Nebraska to run a seemingly unwinnable race against some batshit crazy teabagger. He's made it a real race, but Nebraska is just too full of tea baggers these days. There are few politicians that I have greater respect for than Bob Kerrey and should he pull out an upset victory, I will celebrating in style. That means opening a bottle of one of my rarest beers, 3 Fonteinen Armand’4 Oude Geuze Zomer that I picked up in Europe for around $50.
Double A's prediction: Batshit teabagger by 6.9%
Massachusetts Senate: Elizabeth Warren (D) vs. Incumbent Senator Scott Brown (R)
Brown has generally been pretty moderate during his tenure in the Senate, which has included voting for Obama's financial regulation bill that so many Republicans have vehemently rejected. Unfortunately for Brown, Democratic superstar (and GILF!) Elizabeth Warren has run a near flawless campaign. A win by Warren would be a huge win for hardcore liberals and a win for America in my book. Luckily, she clings to a healthy lead today.
Double A's prediction: Warren by 6%
Colorado Marijuana Legalization Initiative, Amendment 64
Surprisingly, polls have shown public favor for legalizing marijuana in Colorado for several months now. Unfortunately for weed-vocates, stoners get stoned and forget to vote. Be sure to keep an eye on a similar measure in Washington that seems to have a better chance of passing.
Double A's prediction: fail to pass by 2
Aaron "Double A" Nielsen
We have one day to go before the 2012 election in what many have called "the biggest election of our lifetime." The TV commercials are blaring at me about how Mitt Romney will give Planned Parenthood the axe and mandate magic underpants under RomneyCare, while Obama is raise our national debt to
$20,000,000,000,000
And what the fuck is going on with the polls? When Obama held a five to six point lead nationally before the first debate, Republicans claimed there was clearly a bias in the industry. Contrary to recent studies that showed that no consistent bias existed for Republicans or for Democrats in the past, Republicans repeated their mantra that Science is bullshit and the polls were wrong. A few weeks later, Mitt Romney came storming back in the polls after Barry decided to skip the first debate. I guess it goes without saying that Fox News and other Conservative freakshows started to advertise Mitt's big lead daily. Folks, you can't have it both ways.
With one day to go before the election, national polls are a bit all over the place suggesting to some that this race is a tossup. Is it really? A tossup would mean that it's literally a 50/50 chance that Obama gets re-elected. Since the polls are not in agreement about the state of the race, it would be helpful if there was a method to aggregate the polls and make some meaningful prediction. RealClearPolitics has been doing this for a while, but they give equal weight to all recent polls. Surely, there is a better way to weigh polls based on the pollsters' previous predictions. Nate Silver of 538 does this and implements a probabilistic approach to the problem. According to Silver, Obama has over an 85% chance of victory with an expected electoral college count of over 300. Other nerds have created similar algorithms, such as Sam Wang of Princeton. Wang predicts Obama has a 99% chance of victory. If the nerds say Obama has this baby in the bag, what's the point of watching?
For one, election night provides an excellent reason to get loaded on a Tuesday night. If you attempt to watch six straight hours of CNN with a straight head, your brain is likely to explode (medically, this is called Exploding Head Syndrome). If you dare to watch six straight hours of Fox Noise coverage, well, that's not possible. It's against the Geneva Conventions on Torture. So grab yourself a twelver of Bud, a couple of bombers of quality craft beer, or a mason jar of moonshine and get ready for non-stop coverage of the tightest counties, charts of the electorate, and plenty of visits to ballot counting rooms. Drinking games are always a hit on election night, as long as you are not some nerd holed in up your basement with your daddy. Take a drink anytime one of the following keywords is mentioned (courtesy of http://www.debatedrinking.com/):
-Ground Game
-Firewall
-Sandy
-Photo ID
-Recount
-Youth Vote
-Ass-to-Mouth
-Enthusiasm
-The Name of a Third Party Candidate (Gary Johnson, Jill Stein, Virgil Goode, Rocky Anderson)
-Ohio
-Reagan
Another fun thing to do on election night is to flip to the partisan cable network whose candidate is losing. Should Romney pull out a miracle in Pennsylvania, switch over to Rachel Maddow and the other liberal freeloaders on MSNBC to see them cry about turnout due to Hurricane Sandy. If Barry gives Mitt a Dirty Sanchez in Ohio, switch over to Fox News and hear Megyn Kelly lament about the Black Panthers intimidating voters in mainstream American and the need for more voter ID laws in the US.
As for me, I'll be drinking a variety of craft beers from around America while blogging exclusively here on Festung Europa. Be sure to stay tuned!
Without further ado, let's take a look at electoral college predictions (feel free to submit your picks before 5pm MST Tuesday):
The Pros:
Drew Linzer: Obama 332 / Romney 206
Josh Putnam: Obama 332 / Romney 206
Sam Wang: Obama 319 / Romney 219
Nate Silver: Obama 303 / Romney 235
Scott Elliott: Obama 290 / Romney 248
Real Clear Politics: Obama 290 / Romney 248
DeSart and Holbrook: Obama 281 / Romney 257
Karl Rove: Romney 279 / Obama 259
Michael Barone: Romney 315 / Obama 223
Bickers/Berry: Romney 320 / Obama 218
The Nielsens:
Aaron: Obama 303 / Romney 235
Justin: Obama 290 / Romney 248
Daryl: Romney 285 / Obama 253
The Others:
Chris Meyer: Obama 286 / Romney 252
Brady K: Obama 332 / Romney 206
Brad Nielsen: Romney 538 / Obama 0
And here's an interesting Washington Post link with predictions of other "experts," including that of Jim Cramer, who seems a little mathematically challenged when he posits that Obama will receive 440 electoral votes!
Not surprisingly, the partisans are choosing their candidate of choice. Originally, I had Obama winning with 290 electoral votes winning the swing states of Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Colorado. Just prior to publication of this article, I have updated my prediction to include Virginia in the Obama column. I am predicting a slight popular vote edge for Obama on election night. The presidential race isn't the only one that I'll be following closely on election night. Here's the top races that I'll be keeping tabs on around the country.
Double A's prediction: Obama 303 (50.1% popular), Romney 235 (48.7% popular)
Missouri Senate: Incumbent Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) vs. Todd Akin (R)
"Claire Bear" was as good as gone from this seat until the Tea Baggers nominated bat shit crazy psycho Todd Akin. Akin's first talk about "legitimate rape" should have sunk his candidacy, but Republicans have quietly been pouring money back into the state. Fortunately, Akin is just too bat shit, even for bat shit crazy Missouri.
Double A's prediction: McCaskill by 4%
Virginia Senate: Tim Kaine (D) vs. George Allen (R)
Allen was an up and comer in the Republican party with many even suggesting him for president just a few years back. That was until some blogger caught Allen calling someone a "Macaca" during his re-election campaign for Senate back in 2006. Jim Webb eventually won the seat, but Allen is back for sloppy seconds after Webb announced he was retiring. Tim Kaine is a favorite in the Democratic party, the former chairman of the DNC, and a finalist for Obama's VP slot back in 2008. I think Obama's turnout in Virginia will help Kaine narrowly win this seat.
Double A's prediction: Kaine by 3%
Nebraska Senate: Bob Kerrey (D) vs. Deb Fischer (R)
Democrats somehow convinced former governor and former senator of Nebraska to run a seemingly unwinnable race against some batshit crazy teabagger. He's made it a real race, but Nebraska is just too full of tea baggers these days. There are few politicians that I have greater respect for than Bob Kerrey and should he pull out an upset victory, I will celebrating in style. That means opening a bottle of one of my rarest beers, 3 Fonteinen Armand’4 Oude Geuze Zomer that I picked up in Europe for around $50.
Double A's prediction: Batshit teabagger by 6.9%
Massachusetts Senate: Elizabeth Warren (D) vs. Incumbent Senator Scott Brown (R)
Brown has generally been pretty moderate during his tenure in the Senate, which has included voting for Obama's financial regulation bill that so many Republicans have vehemently rejected. Unfortunately for Brown, Democratic superstar (and GILF!) Elizabeth Warren has run a near flawless campaign. A win by Warren would be a huge win for hardcore liberals and a win for America in my book. Luckily, she clings to a healthy lead today.
Double A's prediction: Warren by 6%
Colorado Marijuana Legalization Initiative, Amendment 64
Surprisingly, polls have shown public favor for legalizing marijuana in Colorado for several months now. Unfortunately for weed-vocates, stoners get stoned and forget to vote. Be sure to keep an eye on a similar measure in Washington that seems to have a better chance of passing.
Double A's prediction: fail to pass by 2
Aaron "Double A" Nielsen
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